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This has been a storied rivalry for some time now. I live in North Carolina so I have to deal with the completely biased fans from both sides. I wish it were possible for both teams to lose, but that can't happen so I am going to give my prediction.
North Carolina
Key Player: Ty Lawson. I think that Lawson is key for the Tar Heels. In Carolina's two losses Lawson is averaging 9.5 points, 4.5 assists, and 4 turnovers. Compare this to his average of 15 points, 6 assists, and only 1.7 turnovers for the season. It's obvious that he is a main factor in big games for them. While Duke doesn't have the ability at point guard that BC and Wake Forest have, it is still essential for Lawson to play smart and run the offense. The game starts with him for the Heels and if he has a game like he did against Wake then the Tar Heels will lose.
Defensively: The Heels have an athletic advantage over Duke that can't be understated. While I don't think they are that strong on the defensive side of the ball, they can clamp down on a slower, smaller Duke team. The key here is for UNC to defend the three ball, as it is Duke's bread and butter. If they put pressure on the shooters then they will win. The only real slashing threat Duke has is Gerald Henderson and I think Danny Green is capable of shutting him down.
Offensively: Again it starts with Lawson. If he has a bad game you can forget about UNC scoring 100. The one thing Duke always does under Coach K is apply immense pressure. It will be imperative for UNC to get the ball inside to Hansbrough. Carolina has an advantage down low, but they don't have the depth that they did early in the season, so if he gets into foul trouble it will take that advantage away. The perimeter shooters need to shoot well and Wayne Ellington is certainly capable. They need to use their inside-out game that they have with Hansbrough and Ellington. Carolina is also better in transition due to their athleticism.
Duke
Key Player: Brian Zoubek. Look, Zoubek is not good, by any means, but he is vital to the success of the Blue Devils tonight. If he can at least stand his ground and play tough defense on the inside it will be a major help to Duke. He isn't good on the offensive end of the floor, but if he can manage to get 10 points or so it would help alleviate the pressure that the shooters have to deal with. This guy has to come up big, but don't expect it as he has been an underachiever throughout his career.
Defensively: This is where Duke is good. Again Zoubek is key. He has to be able to contain UNC's post game at least a little bit or all is lost. Duke will apply a ton of pressure on the back court and I expect that to work in their favor, but if Hansbrough man handles Zoubek they will lose that advantage.
Offensively: It comes down to how they shoot the ball. Duke relies on the three as Gerald Henderson is their only true slashing type of player. The good thing is they have at least three players that are capable of getting hot in Sheyer, Singler, and Paulus. Singler is also capable of mixing it up inside and he has a good mid range game, but he doesn't score points in bunches, so don't expect the offense to rely on him. They have to find a way to get open looks and if they can they have a good shot of winning this game.
Prediction:
The home court advantage for Duke is huge. If the start making buckets early Duke will win, but I don't think that will happen. I think UNC will play good enough D early on to hold their shooters at bay. UNC will lead by double digits at some point, but Duke will bring it back very close with some timely threes. UNC wins by 5, but the game will be closer than that down the stretch.
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Tell me your predictions guys. I know some duke fans disagree
ReplyDeleteBiased fans? Of course we're biased! That's our team! You're biased towards the Oklahomos. On pace to be the softest #1 seed in the history of the NCAA tourney. Can you say history? Finally a #16 seed beats a #1. Oklahoma has played one good team, Purdue, and it took them OT to win that game. You put the Sooners in the ACC and they would probabaly be 3rd at best. In the conference not in the nation. But enough BIASED talk......
ReplyDeleteHeels roll by 12.
I read your story and here’s how “we fans” feel……………..The key to the game will be Green against Henderson (take a picture, write it down, I don’t give a f_ck) on both ends of the floor. His ability on defense and if he gets into foul trouble will be the deciding factor. Put that in your blog and smoke it punk flea!!!!!!!!
ReplyDeleteLawson will FUCK Paulis up and Hansbrough will get 26-28 and Duke has no answer for UNC’s interior presence. However, UNC doesn’t have anyone other than Green that can hang with Henderson athletically…..i.e. - no Ginyard this year.
Another very important factor, yet not the most important, is which Duke shooting team shows up. A team that shoots >50% from the floor or the same team that shoots <30% from the floor. If they’re hot in Cameron it’s gonna be a long night. It is after all, one of the best home court advantages in the nation.
It is all about defense! That is why Duke shot 30% against Wake, Wake played defense. It is not about whether Duke is having a good shooting night,it is whether UNC decides to play defense. If the tarheels play defense then they will run Duke all night, getting them in foul trouble and it should be over with about 8 minutes to go in the game. If UNC doesn't play defense than it will be close and anyone's game. Advantage to Tarheels either way due to strength of bench, that is, if Williams uses his bench properly. Roy seems to have a problem going to his bench if he is behind in a game, that is when they lose.
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