Tuesday, May 5, 2009

Fun with sample sizes and bad stats

Sorry I haven't posted in a while, but I have been thoroughly enjoying the start of the MLB season. So today I have decided to take a look at some of the performances of players and just point out who are this year's Chris Shelton and Esteban Loaiza. This should be fun.

Raul Ibanez- Phillies
Ok, Ibanez is a decent player, but what he is doing right now is way too good for him. His line goes something like this .344/.408/.700. That is awesome and pair that with the fact that he has 8 home runs already, which means he's on pace to hit 56. If anyone honestly believes that 854 year old Ibanez can hit 56 homers they should be shot. Realistically his average, obp, and slugging percentage are going to drop as well considering his career line is .287/ .347/ .486. I would also like to point out the fact that his home ops is 1.374 and away it is .748. This old fella has to stop hitting like this at some point and it will probably start with a big road trip. Really, he's not this good, he actually isn't very good at all.

Benjie Molina- Giants
I hope that no one thinks his current numbers are all-star worthy, but I am using him to point out the awfulness of using batting average to quantify whether or not a player is good offensively. Molina is hitting .295 with 4 homers. Ten years ago people would've assumed that those numbers were good enough to be an all-star, well not true. Let's say, hypothetically, that he hits .295 and keeps up his pace to hit 27 homers, is that all-star worthy? Well, maybe, because Dioner Navarro was an all-star last year, and he seems completely inept at hitting baseballs. Alright, Molina is hitting .295, but he has like the greatest on base percentage ever....... a staggering .286. This guy is the epitome of a patient hitter, walking an amazing zero times this year, good stuff. So what this tells me is that more than 71% of the time that Molina steps in the batters box he is going to have absolutely no chance to cross home plate. Benjie, my friend, you are a f*cking beast.

Alberto Callaspo- Royals
His current line is .378/.435/.561, career line .285/.340/.368. Granted he is fairly young, but he hit his first home run this year and he has had over 400 at bats. Maybe he does hit .300 and his OBP hovers in the high .300s (unlikely), it still won't make him all that good because he is very fond of singles and not much else, I think this guy has about as much power as Rey Ordonez.

Derek Jeter- Yankees
Jeter has been scrutinized by sportswriters and statisticians for his perceived inability to play shortstop. Well, for the first month he ranked in the top ten among shortstops for range factor and zone rating, this proves that Jeter worked his butt off in the off season and he has improved vastly, right. Wrong, Jeter is a terrible SS and should be playing elsewhere, but I don't think he has enough range to play anywhere, but maybe first. He is not good and if you don't believe me check out his DT card on baseball prospectus.