UNC vs. Duke Preview

This has been a storied rivalry for some time now. I live in North Carolina so I have to deal with the completely biased fans from both sides. I wish it were possible for both teams to lose, but that can't happen so I am going to give my prediction.

North Carolina

Key Player: Ty Lawson. I think that Lawson is key for the Tar Heels. In Carolina's two losses Lawson is averaging 9.5 points, 4.5 assists, and 4 turnovers. Compare this to his average of 15 points, 6 assists, and only 1.7 turnovers for the season. It's obvious that he is a main factor in big games for them. While Duke doesn't have the ability at point guard that BC and Wake Forest have, it is still essential for Lawson to play smart and run the offense. The game starts with him for the Heels and if he has a game like he did against Wake then the Tar Heels will lose.

Defensively: The Heels have an athletic advantage over Duke that can't be understated. While I don't think they are that strong on the defensive side of the ball, they can clamp down on a slower, smaller Duke team. The key here is for UNC to defend the three ball, as it is Duke's bread and butter. If they put pressure on the shooters then they will win. The only real slashing threat Duke has is Gerald Henderson and I think Danny Green is capable of shutting him down.

Offensively: Again it starts with Lawson. If he has a bad game you can forget about UNC scoring 100. The one thing Duke always does under Coach K is apply immense pressure. It will be imperative for UNC to get the ball inside to Hansbrough. Carolina has an advantage down low, but they don't have the depth that they did early in the season, so if he gets into foul trouble it will take that advantage away. The perimeter shooters need to shoot well and Wayne Ellington is certainly capable. They need to use their inside-out game that they have with Hansbrough and Ellington. Carolina is also better in transition due to their athleticism.

Duke

Key Player: Brian Zoubek. Look, Zoubek is not good, by any means, but he is vital to the success of the Blue Devils tonight. If he can at least stand his ground and play tough defense on the inside it will be a major help to Duke. He isn't good on the offensive end of the floor, but if he can manage to get 10 points or so it would help alleviate the pressure that the shooters have to deal with. This guy has to come up big, but don't expect it as he has been an underachiever throughout his career.

Defensively: This is where Duke is good. Again Zoubek is key. He has to be able to contain UNC's post game at least a little bit or all is lost. Duke will apply a ton of pressure on the back court and I expect that to work in their favor, but if Hansbrough man handles Zoubek they will lose that advantage.

Offensively: It comes down to how they shoot the ball. Duke relies on the three as Gerald Henderson is their only true slashing type of player. The good thing is they have at least three players that are capable of getting hot in Sheyer, Singler, and Paulus. Singler is also capable of mixing it up inside and he has a good mid range game, but he doesn't score points in bunches, so don't expect the offense to rely on him. They have to find a way to get open looks and if they can they have a good shot of winning this game.

Prediction:
The home court advantage for Duke is huge. If the start making buckets early Duke will win, but I don't think that will happen. I think UNC will play good enough D early on to hold their shooters at bay. UNC will lead by double digits at some point, but Duke will bring it back very close with some timely threes. UNC wins by 5, but the game will be closer than that down the stretch.

USA v Mexico Preview

This is the first of two game previews that are being unveiled today, the second being the UNC v Duke college basketball game.

I expect this game to be very similar to previous match ups. I expect the US to try and control possession, primarily deep in the midfield. In doing this they will also attempt to make the game slow and terrible on the eye, but they don't want Mexico to get going offensively because they have a ton of technical ability. The US will have to find someone willing to take defenders on, in past games between the two this has been difficult and as a result the US has an obvious reliance on set pieces. To be said more plainly Donovan and Dempsey have to go right at the Mexican defense.


I think the lineup will consist of this:

Howard

Hejduk Onyewu Bocanegra Pearce

Dempsey Bradley Kljestan

Donovan Beasley

Ching

I think Bradley will play it safe considering the importance of the game, but here is what I think the lineup should be.

Howard

Wynne Onyewu Califf Bocanegra

Kljestan Bradley Torres

Dempsey Donovan

Altidore

Obviously I have quite a few differences. On the back line I added Marvell Wynne over Hejduk. I know Hejduk isn't as shaky defensively as Wynne can be at times, but Wynne has amazing pace, so much so that he can recover from most mistakes. This pace also makes him more of a threat going forward. The knock on him right now is that he doesn't produce much at the end of his runs forward. I personally am ok with that, the runs alone might unsettle the defense and if he does put in a few good crosses it's an added plus.

I put Califf in the middle and Bocanegra on the left. This isn't anything against Bocanegra at centre back, as he has been in good form there for the national team. Bocanegra has played left back for his club in France and I think he would add a lot of stability over there in comparison to Pearce and Bornstein.

In the midfield I have put Beasley on the bench and added Jose Fransisco Torres, there are a few reasons for this. First, Beasley hasn't played for his club, Rangers, in forever, so he is probably not in good form. Second, Torres has been playing a lot for his club Pachuca. Torres also has Mexican heritage and he plays in Mexico, I think he would be pumped up for this game and it would add a lot of energy to the side. Finally, Torres is more versatile than Beasley, he can play wide, in the middle, he is a very good passer, and he can shoot from distance. On top of all that I think Torres is better technically.

Up front I took out Ching and threw in Altidore. The last time these two clubs played Altidore completely owned Rafa Marquez. He may not be consistent throughout the game, but Altidore adds a size, power, pace, and technical ability combination that Ching has never had. I think if Jozy plays up to his abilities he would give the defense fits.

For Mexico, I think they will lose this game simply because they will lose possession as described earlier. If they can come out early and play fast then they have a chance, if not it will be a slow defensive affair, and personally I don't the Eriksson is a very good coach, so it will be difficult for them to make the right adjustments.

Final - USA 2 - Mexico 1
Kljestan and Donovan get goals and Guillermo Franco gets a late consolation goal.